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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still